Monday, March 14, 2011

A lot has happened with the market and Duck Brother's Investing since my last blog. This blog will catch you up on the progress. The last time I posted Duck Brother's portfolio had three stocks PCLN, LULU, and GPOR. We sold GPOR on February 28, 2011 and earned 28.54%. Our general rule is to sell a stock at an 8% loss or a 24% gain. With GPOR we held on past a 24% gain because it went up 24% in three weeks; and William J. O'Neil says stocks that go up this fast should be held onto and watched closely. The reason we sold on February 28, 2011 is because the stock ran up early in the day and closed were it opened. When stocks make this pattern it could indicate that the security just topped. Below is GPOR's chart the day we sold.

On March 7, 2011 we sold the remaining stocks in our portfolio, because the general market went into correction. The market is in correction when there are 5 to 6 distribution days within a 5 week period. Below is a chart of the Nasdaq showing the distribution days.

At this point it is very risky to invest, because 75% of stocks follow the general market. Below is our portfolio as of today.

Saturday, February 19, 2011


In our portfolio we still own PCLN, LULU, and GPOR. Last week WLT never hit its buy point and CTRP did.

EBIX is our stock pick of the week. It is forming a cup pattern without a handle. If it has a breakout day it could be a good stock to buy.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

2011 so far . . .

I thought it might be time for me to talk a little about what has been going on in my personal portfolio. 2011 has been pretty average so far, I made some good picks and a bad one. I also got caught with a ill-placed stop loss on a stock that I should have sold in early January after they reported their numbers. But other than that, I'm pretty happy with my portfolio now and how things are progressing. I'm also well diversified in both sectors and in international stocks so hopefully that will help me to avoid all this inflation talk.

Here is what my portfolio looks like now. As you can see I have 4 stocks and some cash waiting for the right buy point. My big loss for the year came from my investment in MIPS. As Tim has discussed on this blog already there were signals there that we should have never gotten into MIPS but we both did and we both took a loss. Sometimes that happens, but I should have instituted some damage control and I should have never taken a 21.69% loss. I just kept hanging on hoping for it to turn around, but it never did. This was just an opportunity to learn from my mistakes. The other loss was from ATVI. I had originally gotten into this stock because I was expecting big 4th Quarter gains in 2010. But I never sold in early January and the stock lost all of it's gains after Blizzard announced that there was going to be no big releases in 2011 and the company announced that they were discontinuing their Guitar Hero series. I'm not sure how I could have seen that coming.
Finally I wanted to talk about diversification. I am finally pretty happy with how diversified my portfolio has become. Last year I spent way too much time heavily invested into technology, then foreign energy and finally consumer products fir the holidays. i lost focus on how a solid portfolio should be well diversified. In the image above you can see how my portfolio looks now. I won't hold onto the cash forever, but I will probably put that last investment into a commodity or into another international equity to ward off inflation as the US dollar drops. We will just have to wait and see. Thanks for reading!

Saturday, February 12, 2011


Last week was a good week for Duck Brother’s Investing. All our picks have been successful and our portfolio has hit an all time high. YTD we are up 3.81% and since inception up 11.42%. WLT did not hit a buy point, but is still developing.

CTSH is our stock pick of the week. Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation is a provider of custom information technology consulting and technology services.

Saturday, February 5, 2011


This last week I learned a lot about investing. I learned a fundamental mistake I have been making. It is a mistake that if I used I would not have bought into MIPS, or CCME. Both of these buys have been my worst mistakes. The fundamental rule I discovered is the buy point should not be more than 12% away from the 50-day moving average when the stock breaks out. Most cases the buy point ranges from 6% to 12% above the 50-day moving average.

Duck Brothers Investing bought GPOR, LULU and sold CCME. Both GPOR and LULU hit a buy point this week. GPOR reached its buy point on Monday at $23.02 and LULU on Friday with its buy point at $74.70. GPOR has raced up 9.25% and LULU is up 3.03%. We sold CCME with an 8% loss. Below is our Duck Brothers portfolio. We own PCLN, LULU, and GPOR.

Walter Energy, Inc is our stock pick of the week. It currently is forming a double bottom or a cup-with-handle base. WLT is a producer and exporter of metallurgical coal for the global steel industry. It also produces steam coal, coal bed methane gas, and metallurgical coke. WLT over next week will probably trend lower falling below the 50-day moving average. It will gain support under the moving average and create a W-pattern. The W-shape pattern is also called double bottom. Normally the second down trend will go lower than the first. The buy point will be above the 50-day moving average with volume 40% or higher above average. Also the buy point should be 12% or less away from the 50-day moving average on the day it gains support.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

A friendly wager between brothers.

Welcome back to Duck Brothers. I hope the stock market has been treating you well. January was a little bit rough for me, but the beginning of the year usually is. Consumer spending is down and stocks that inflate for their year end numbers tend to deflate a bit as well. I think that this is a good time of year to ask yourself how you did last year, evaluate you investing strategy and refocus on what works for you. That's what I have been doing.

Tim and I have decided to test our market prowess against each other over the course of 2011. Being brothers competition has always been fierce between us. Basically we wanted to see who could do better with their personal portfolios in the next 12 months. And what better time to start this sort of thing than the beginning of a the year.

We have settled on who has the highest percentage gain on their portfolio in 2011. We are excluding the cost of trades as this may bring down our percentages a little and its not really fair since we pay different amounts for trades. Basically its portfolio vs portfolio to test our market acumen against one another.

To make it even more interesting we have decided to focus on quarterly results as well. The winner of each quarter will receive a point. The winner of the entire year will receive 2 points. Theoretically it is possible to win 3 quarters and loose the year to a very poor quarter and have the bet be a wash. Now I'm not going to tell you what each point is worth (because that would be illegal) but for now consider each point to be worth a nice steak dinner. Just as it is possible to wash, going 3-3, it is also possible to pull off a sweep and have the other brother owe you 6 steak dinners (or points). Clear as mud. Expect constant updates here at

Saturday, January 29, 2011


This week's stock pick is Gulf port Energy Corp. GPOR is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The company has been forming a 6-week base and could have a big week. Their buy point is $23.02. If Gulf Port Energy's daily volume increases 40% or higher it could break out.

The general market last week was hit hard. Worries about the US economy and troubles in Egypt sent the market lower. Because of the shaky market and failed rally attempt from ALTR we decided to cut our losses early. Below is a chart of ALTR's unusually high distribution days. On Thursday CCME hit our buy point. Below are pictures of our portfolio.